tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2732335530726828393.post4188988206755809304..comments2024-03-05T06:32:42.206-05:00Comments on A Different Point of View....: Justin Trudeau: Will he be remembered as the man who saved Canada or the Prince of Selfies? Nick Fillmorehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01164453733837765836noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2732335530726828393.post-6434164820572230342016-04-30T11:54:06.429-04:002016-04-30T11:54:06.429-04:00Nick, there's quite a fascinating twist to thi...Nick, there's quite a fascinating twist to this that has yet to get very much play. The massive gap between Canada's 2030 target and its Harper-era trajectory was reported in a National Energy Board release that *left out* the GHG reductions in the Alberta climate plan, as well as pre-Paris announcements by (if I remember correctly) Quebec, Ontario, and Manitoba. Which showed that accusations of being hopeless and unrealistic apply not to Trudeau's promises, but to the NEB's pathetic modelling ability (and deeply-embedded, fossil-driven assumptions).<br />Last week, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project put the actual gap at just 91 megatonnes by 2030 (http://smartershift.com/energymix/2016/04/29/canada-falls-short-of-climate-target-and-its-not-alone/), with analysis that factored in the provincial commitments. They still have to deliver, and there's vastly much more that we can and should be doing. But frankly, from the one-step-removed view I've had of low-carbon modelling, 14 years to make up a gap of 91 Mt. is not nearly as daunting as it might sound. In fact, in my mind, it gives credence to Trudeau's and McKenna's statements that 30% by 2030 is a floor, not a ceiling -- that they want to do better than the Harper target if they can.<br />We should all be watching the pipeline debate very closely and critically, because if they get it wrong, they'll get it very wrong. But notwithstanding the latest storm and fury, that hasn't happened yet. The climate plan consultations have opened up an organizing opportunity around this, and if the packed house (and fantastic conversation) in Ottawa Centre Thursday night was any indication, ENGOs are going to be putting it to good use.Mitchell Beerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02332652599637095523noreply@blogger.com