3 Sep 2012

Bad news for the NDP and the rest of us,
as Harper's Conservatives pull even

It’s hard to believe, but -- despite all the crimes, insults to Canadians and general incompetence -- the Harper government has pulled even with the NDP in major opinion polls.

The highly regarded Internet site, Threehundredeight.com, calculated all polls as of August 30 and showed the Conservatives at 33.9, the NDP at 33.6, and the Liberals at 21.7.

Based on these percentages, if an election were held today, Harper would finish in first by a comfortable margin.

A blend of polls conducted by Forum Research and Abacus Data between July 25 and Aug 12 on an aggregate sample of about 3700 respondents projects Conservative Party strength at around 133 seats, 120 seats for the New Democratic Party, 46 for the Liberal Party, 8 for the Bloc Québécois and 1 for the Green Party.

The important question has to be, not how well the CONS are doing, but why Thomas Mulcair and the "Dippers" -- as they're called by mainstream journalists -- aren't doing better. Considering the fact that more than 60 per cent of Canadians voted against Harper in the last election, that the outrageous CONS. have offended just about every thinking person in the country, and that the Liberals are pretty well leaderless, you would think the NDP should be at perhaps 45 per cent in the polls.

Despite their failure to impress Canadians, top folks in the NDP have been behaving as though they are sure they are the "government in waiting." The party apparently thinks it’s in a strong position to become the government because it is now the opposition in Parliament.

So why isn’t the NDP leading the Conservatives in popularity by a country mile?

I personally dislike the emphasis Canadians and the censored mainstream media place on the appeal factor of party leaders. Case in point – we may see Trudeaumania all over again, but this time the excitement will be over a boy who has not matured enough to hold a place in Cabinet, let along lead the country.

One difficulty the NDP faces is that Leader Thomas Mulcair, who has many strengths but also a lot of hair on his face!, has not, so far, impressed very many Canadians. An Angus Red poll published in August said that only 31 per cent of Canadians have confidence in Mulcair’s performance. And what about Stephen Harper? Well 36 per cent of Canadians think he is doing a good job!

Perhaps the NDP should think more about adopting and promoting stronger positions on key issues.  Mulcair and those in the NDP who so desperately want to win, have taken the party further toward the centre and are wishy-washy on a lot of key issues. No matter what their stripe, political parties that think they have the edge in getting elected start playing down the discussion of any real issues for fear of driving away voters. How absurd!

Does the anger that swelled up around the phrase "99 per vent vs the 1 per cent" mean nothing more than a slogan to those who control the party? It should mean something. We have reached a point where millions of everyday Canadians are angrier than at any time in living memory and they’re looking for someone to lead them out of the Harper hell.

By moving themselves closer to the positions that might be held by the Liberals, the NDP is opening up territory for the Liberals to challenge them for votes, especially among those who are undecided.
I think it’s time for the NDP to throw away the traditional “how to do politics” reader and aggressively reach out to Canadians.

For instance, the NDP should announce that it would dramatically change the tax system to give more money back to average Canadians and less to the rich. It would begin to eliminate the many tax loopholes for the rich created by the Liberals and Conservatives over the past 30 years. And the party would reverse the trend and begin gradually increasing taxes on corporations.

In view of the fact that the CONS. practically have no development policies -- other than to develop tar sands at any price – the NDP should announce a diversified development plan that would include some emphasis on renewable energy.  The NDP would phase out subsidies to the non-renewable energy sector. It would attempt to work with Alberta to keep much of the tar sands in the ground, while supporting a policy for limited, long-term use of tar sands for Canadian industry. It would spell out its environmental protection plan. Mulcair would GUARANTEE, in writing, that he would introduce proportional representation if he won a majority.

And finally, the NDP would speak the never-spoken-before-by-a-Canadian-politician phrase -- neo-liberal -- and denounce everything it stands for.

I can’t help but wonder how the NDP would fare if it took strong positions on most of these issues.
Given that it can’t put the boots to perhaps the most unpopular political party in the history of Canada, the party really needs to do some serious soul searching. There is time to begin making changes so they will have some impact on Canadians before the Liberals hold their leadership convention.

Otherwise, we have the bleak prospect of looking forward to a Conservative minority government in 2015 – unless a lot of us can successfully urge people to support either a New Democrat or a Liberal in a lot of key ridings. But that’s a story for another day.
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  1. Whether or not anyone repeats your favourite mantra of neo-liberal the politicians of our time are all taking their cues from Carl rove and Bush. Standing for something is infinitely more dangerous than merely slagging the opposition. Constantly in every venue they can think of the parties merely point at the others and call them down. Our North American population has shown they are not interested in actually finding out who might help them and are instead swayed by the latest greatest attack ad. Harper knows this much to our loss and the others are learning.

  2. this recent poll is a result of the brighter financial situation for CANADA that was announced this week
    Harper emphasizes the economy and now people believe he knows best
    Social losses and brutal cuts for a long time are forgotten because of short term gains

  3. I see things somewhat differently.

    For the 99% to "win", we need to convince ourselves and others that politics is a worthwhile endeavour. We need to make it worthwhile for people who aren't bothering to get involved, to make the effort.

    I know it can be done; I saw it happen here in Saanich-Gulf Islands, where many people voted for the first time in their lives for a winning candidate, Elizabeth May. Even quite a few people who are uneasy with some aspects of the Green platform voted for the person who was clearly the best candidate (and has been voted best rooky MP).

    I know the Greens can't form government next time. But people's views on the legitimacy of coalition governments are changing. A Conservative minority govt. would not be the disaster we might imagine it to be. According to our constitution, it could be replaced by a government of the other parties working together, either as a coalition or another minority government.
    Let's get the opposition parties working together NOW. Let's educate ourselves and others about the coalition option.
    all the best, janslakov@shaw.ca

  4. Rather than focusing on aggregates. . .follow the trends. . .esp. http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t01r3ioEKL8/UCLLNnNwyRI/AAAAAAAAJM0/eO2pav-AdSM/s1600/Monthly+Federal+Polls.PNG
    The regional data says more about the NDP's popularity then the aggregate Canadian poll. Don't forget the time when we were ecstatic to be at 18% between elections. . .

  5. When will the NDP ever learn? Every time they make progress (eg. 105 seats, official opposition) they scramble to appear "responsible" or in the "Centre". This results in a LOSS of relevance, hence loss of support; who needs a second liberal party? (or a third conservative)

    They are chasing a bygone "centre", one not defined by 21st century conditions. Where and when will they acknowledge the "99%" or "occupy"; how do they relate to the world famous Quebec student actions? Finite resources? These are the voices of the 21st century "CENTRE" who articulate the demands of the majority.

    At times Thomas Mulcair sounds like Bob Rae-day when the latter addressed the Economic Club of Toronto and said, while specifically referring to occupy 99% as radicals, he was talking to the "centre".

    The only "centre these types know is the one between their buttocks; they need both hands to find that one!

  6. I don't trust the polls. A Statistics instructor I knew had a saying, "figures don't lie but liars can figure".

  7. Would Jack Layton have behaved like that?

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